The textbook says money walks BTC → ETH → large caps → alts. Our data says it moves more like this.
BTC reclaims its cycle line. ETH & SOL and a few quality names turn first. Most people still think it’s a bear rally.
Market-wide surges 3–7 months after a top failed. The ones 8–15 months after marked the bottom. This one: ~11.
Build the Core. BTC & SOL on the cycle call. It’s the highest-odds money of the whole cycle.
Not a neat chain. Nearly every liquid coin reclaims its trend in the same week. But most are still basing underneath.
Now: 95% of liquid coins above trend, only ~1 in 3 structurally turned. Large caps leading, memes lagging.
Don’t chase the pump. Wait for structure to turn. Newly listed and still-basing coins sit out.
Coins graduate into real uptrends. Sectors with usage lead: DeFi, AI, infrastructure. Leadership rotates in bursts.
Mid caps gave the best trades. Buying a sector when it’s hot beat buying it cold. Adding mid-run lost money.
Trade the leaders on signals. Small, rules-based bursts. Every exit set on day one.
Everything goes parabolic. Memes set highs, FOMO everywhere. This is the part everyone waits for.
Alts beat the majors in only 3 of 16 quarters. Last cycle most alts peaked months before BTC.
Sell into strength. Alts exit on their own lines, not on BTC’s. Proceeds roll back to the Core.
BTC loses its cycle line. Every “buy the dip” gets bought, then broken. The bear begins quietly.
By BTC’s cycle exit last time, the median alt was already −74% from its peak.
One call, all out. Sit in cash. Let the bear do its work, then back to 01.
Majors on the cycle call in 2023–25, vs 1.3× for a rules-based alt book.
Quarters where alts actually beat the majors. Alt season is real, just short.
Per cycle for the Core: in or out. Fewer decisions, fewer mistakes.
For information only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.
